CounterlineThe Sports Desk

Know what you’re following.

Counterline publishes a rules-based, experimental fade strategy.

the marketone bookSTEP 1

Spot an unusual quote

Thousands of prices are read and each one is compared with the wider market under a fixed, registered procedure. A quote has to beat that market by at least 1.0% to count as unusual.

their quoteour selectionfadeSTEP 2

Select the other side

The strategy does not follow the book that is out of line. It fades it — takes the opposite selection — and shops that side across the books it can actually use.

price keptpublishedcheckedlivesettledSTEP 3

Publish and follow

The entry is published with its price, its book and its time, and it keeps them. Its status and its result are recorded against that original entry, win or lose.

The signal and the selection are two different things

This is the part that is easiest to misread, so the site keeps them apart everywhere. The quote that triggers a pick is on one side. The bet that gets published is on the other.

The signalA quote on the other sideOne book’s price, and how far it sits from the wider market. This is what fired the rule.
The selectionWhat is actually publishedThe opposite side, at the best price found. Its own value against the market is computed separately and can come out either way.

An example

Over 8.5 at −104
one book, out of line with the other books pricing the same game
Under 8.5 at +102
the published selection: the opposite side, at the best price available to us

Illustrative numbers, not a current or past pick. The selection is not published because the other side looked wrong by this much — the rule fires on the quote, and the selection then gets its own price and its own separately computed value, which can come out either way.

Open a pick’s details to see both sides.

What the labels mean

LabelWhat it tells you
Within limitAt the limit or better, and the price was checked within the last 10 minutes and is on today’s shortlist.
Checked 40 min agoPublished, and the price was last read that long ago — more than 10 minutes. The number shown is the last one seen, not a current offer.
Outside limitThe best price is now worse than the limit. The published price stays on the record; the entry is not currently takeable at the limit.
WatchPublished, and not currently on the shortlist — two de-vig methods disagree about whether the signal cleared the floor.
LiveThe game is under way. The published price is history from the start; nothing here is an in-game recommendation.
Final — settlement pendingThe game ended and the book has not graded the bet yet. The score is not the grade.
Won / LostThe book’s settled grade for the entry.
PushThe result landed exactly on the number, so the stake comes back.
VoidThe bet was cancelled — a postponed game, for one — and the stake comes back.

On the board, point at a label to see its line from this table. On a phone, open the pick: the same line is written under its label.

Questions

Is profitability established?

No. It is not established, and nothing on this site should be read as saying otherwise. The published record is short, it is public, and it keeps its losses. A price passing the rules is a statement about pricing, not about results.

What does "price checked" mean?

That a quote was observed at a stated time. It is not a promise that the price is still there, and it is not a fill — especially on an exchange, where a displayed price may have little matched size behind it.

What is a fade?

Taking the opposite side from the quote that triggered the signal. If one book is unusually keen on a team, the strategy buys the other team.

What is the execution limit?

A price-chasing cap, and only that. It is the published price moved three break-even points against you. It does not mark the point where a bet stops being worth making — nothing here computes that, and the two would be very different promises.

How do I read the odds?

American odds. A minus number is what you would risk to win $100 — at −150, risking $150 returns $100 plus your stake. A plus number is what $100 would win — at +130, $100 returns $130 plus your stake. The site publishes no recommended amount.

How are results recorded?

Each published entry keeps its original quote, its book and its time. When the game ends it gains the final score, and when the book grades it, the settled outcome. Later status changes are recorded against the same entry rather than replacing it.

Why is the shortlist sometimes empty?

Three different reasons, and the page says which one. No selections: prices were checked and none passed the rules. Old quotes: entries were published and their prices have not been re-read recently. Incomplete coverage: some markets could not be checked at all.

What does Watch mean?

Published, but not currently recommended by this interface, because a second de-vig method disagrees that the signal cleared the floor. It is not evidence that the remaining selections are safer or better — that has not been shown — and Watch entries stay in the history either way.